Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
6.9 miles South-East of Cottonwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles South-East of Cottonwood
40.3026°N, 122.1609°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 06:54:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
101.1 km
1.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M1.99 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
34.5 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 27.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ef8e565b7922b67bb5c3e85b848f56e72c897f9c5ec23642b94ffb7b59d015a5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-40.30--122.16-20260428T0654
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.