Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
6.9 miles North of Basalt Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles North of Basalt Junction
38.1487°N, 117.9817°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 04:38:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
532h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
15.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.10
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.6
- 0.10 over limit
Depth Error
5.5 km
Pred. 3.8 km vs actual 1.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
df6e88517a49abf49bb6a2bd48156ca42fae95e90e48aea35fe9dae80560add1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-38.15--117.98-20260520T0438
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.