Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.5 miles South-East of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles South-East of Coleville
38.4595°N, 119.3585°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 08:10:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
536h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
30.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.95
Predicted M3.05 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 3.0 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2ca238ad4ee237eb848d69b74bc8f33c4e56979450b30de50134cb5ad974d6d4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-38.46--119.36-20260520T0810
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.