Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.0 miles North-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.0 miles North-East of Belmont NV
38.7959°N, 116.6298°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 04:47:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
508h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
64.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.22
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.0
- 0.22 over limit
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 7.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
04be6ed335e3fa364a61c45d79f790b9390350651613be0f28fbcd239bc07285
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-38.80--116.63-20260519T0447
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.