Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
8.8 miles North-East of Cloverdale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles North-East of Cloverdale
38.8982°N, 122.9052°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 21:40:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
525h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
62.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.07 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b6a1415a4b75650beb4616cdc40151f2a1595938497efc787258591bd32423b2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-38.90--122.91-20260519T2140
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.