Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3413°N, 119.1147°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 20:38:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
404h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.48
Predicted M3.08 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
13.7 km
Pred. 3.3 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9b7747f3a10c2080bbc625375806582c2da76efeb425717c2c0088bf9168d8da
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-39.34--119.11-20260514T2038
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.