Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
25.1 miles West of Tuscarora
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.1 miles West of Tuscarora
41.2428°N, 116.7015°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 23:54:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
551h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
293.9 km
193.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
16.9 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 10.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
eb1cdbf6688d9898dbb66462e2b678a3a732d5b59eec2054f35eedfd410f0a42
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_165745_pred-41.24--116.70-20260520T2354
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 23:57:48 PST
Source Batch
20260427_165745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:20.417164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.