Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
87.9 miles South of Gaviota
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
87.9 miles South of Gaviota
33.2087°N, 120.4195°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 11:14:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
240.2 km
140.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
17.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.06 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
22.3 km
Pred. 5.9 km vs actual 16.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
717cf3eba68e90a7e28a0f40ef9f786e0da8bd68cfa22913cffa5d6d18155808
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_200222_pred-33.21--120.42-20260428T1114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 03:02:25 PST
Source Batch
20260427_200222_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:22.894786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.