Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
6.1 miles South-East of Cuyama
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles South-East of Cuyama
34.8865°N, 119.5254°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 22:48:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
139h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
44.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c68f009e2aadd62874f59820518863634b0d45adfcd38d1df874904e9b51c329
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_200222_pred-34.89--119.53-20260503T2248
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 03:02:25 PST
Source Batch
20260427_200222_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:22.894786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.