Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.8 miles North of Blair Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles North of Blair Junction
38.0656°N, 118.1555°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 17:09:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
158h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 4.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
62a7ca8bdf7335d58ed8782572a30ce24bf6f0be5a62c72fb28b52f6440fd87f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_200222_pred-38.07--118.16-20260504T1709
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 03:02:25 PST
Source Batch
20260427_200222_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:22.894786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.