Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
6.4 miles South-West of Cloverdale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles South-West of Cloverdale
38.7233°N, 123.0702°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 05:14:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
26h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
89.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
36.3 h
0.3 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.2 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
2.5 km
Pred. 2.7 km vs actual 0.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0e5cd94eac4bf9966d8b57353b74069ca1fe64575f2f432e4387cef794fb91ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_200222_pred-38.72--123.07-20260429T0514
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 03:02:25 PST
Source Batch
20260427_200222_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:22.894786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.