Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2869°N, 119.1594°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 14:49:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
83h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.00
Predicted M2.5 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
493bda972bee6bb4dd75117fdfcf5d43d135f3dc4a462ead7f7dd5ccf144aac5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_200222_pred-39.29--119.16-20260501T1449
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 03:02:25 PST
Source Batch
20260427_200222_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:22.894786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.