Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
35.4 miles South-East of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
35.4 miles South-East of Lovelock
39.9543°N, 117.8714°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 00:28:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
141h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
129.0 km
29.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 9.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
90081985c67f705f6ba171328362c687db38d476462a59580bf92c6e7cc6e376
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_200222_pred-39.95--117.87-20260504T0028
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 03:02:25 PST
Source Batch
20260427_200222_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:22.894786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.