Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
18.9 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.9 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4193°N, 116.5613°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 23:41:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
498h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
24.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.09
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.0
- 0.09 over limit
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 7.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3026345bf87df94199c6396de0776d45e7ec303bc808c4e47fcb39cccedea095
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_214534_pred-38.42--116.56-20260518T2341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 04:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_214534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:24.315465+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.