Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
35.2 miles West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
35.2 miles West of Weott
40.2275°N, 124.5743°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 15:06:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
370h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
21.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.02 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
21.0 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 19.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2af199af76991e9bb24b979ee90b278be625e2d67bfdd86d6ac1187f12dcb3b8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_214534_pred-40.23--124.57-20260513T1506
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 04:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_214534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:24.315465+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.