Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.6 miles South-West of Burney
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.6 miles South-West of Burney
40.6873°N, 121.9334°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 02:14:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
357h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
222.9 km
122.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 4.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
32b99b12a18e5a673f60bdc21df10672a96f72680948a60bc0abf1d24318375d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_214534_pred-40.69--121.93-20260513T0214
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 04:45:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_214534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:24.315465+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.