Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
2.9 miles East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles East of Ojai
34.4545°N, 119.1934°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 19:17:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2317h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
48.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.32
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M2.4
- 1.32 over limit
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 11.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d97997f3ef13c511a73c63d3189937dcab88a07a0fadba7a924bbba30dcadf6b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_222819_pred-34.45--119.19-20260802T1917
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 05:28:22 PST
Source Batch
20260427_222819_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:25.782533+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.