Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
3.3 miles West of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles West of Chester
40.3061°N, 121.2939°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 13:57:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
584h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
138.7 km
38.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.20
Predicted M5.4 vs actual M3.2
- 1.20 over limit
Depth Error
24.0 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 17.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2f22a92085af7a8811628b09ac092ca396385afcdcd83c82adb1c024923338a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_222819_pred-40.31--121.29-20260522T1357
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 05:28:22 PST
Source Batch
20260427_222819_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:25.782533+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.