Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
10.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.6 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2873°N, 119.0998°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 22:44:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.06 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 4.5 km vs actual 7.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
681f03288ef2dbd438db0a08097871d780d1f374a116ac01d67b1b68ba80ba8f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_010000_pred-39.29--119.10-20260428T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 08:00:04 PST
Source Batch
20260428_010000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:53.777077+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.