Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
7.7 miles South-East of Willits
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles South-East of Willits
39.3367°N, 123.2467°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 22:56:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
38h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
148.5 km
48.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.55
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 0.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b0da7c13b3ab136611d55f65fdfdace05ba7fac39b1bd46266d57f284d798be8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_010000_pred-39.34--123.25-20260429T2256
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 08:00:04 PST
Source Batch
20260428_010000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:53.777077+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.