Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.0 miles North of Portola
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles North of Portola
39.8949°N, 120.4957°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 19:01:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.7 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 9.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6dffe8d57de3fb88dacfde92520d5d75bca3786f902cbbcf734555dc7380a896
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_010000_pred-39.89--120.50-20260428T1901
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 08:00:04 PST
Source Batch
20260428_010000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:53.777077+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.