Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
17.3 miles North-East of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.3 miles North-East of Gerlach
40.7941°N, 119.0799°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 20:38:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.44 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
7.6 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 0.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0b45a8c03ac45a13dd8f9f6b14b3b11bd71aa55469c9ac914b1e8008eeec1d52
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_010000_pred-40.79--119.08-20260429T2038
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 08:00:04 PST
Source Batch
20260428_010000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:53.777077+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.