Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
15.1 miles South-East of Hollister
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.1 miles South-East of Hollister
36.6661°N, 121.2579°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 00:50:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
471h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.6
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a56367c429bf0ab50ae171e1c21046c4471020ef1637aad0302cbb169e980875
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-36.67--121.26-20260518T0050
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.