Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
18.1 miles South-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.1 miles South-East of Belmont NV
38.4797°N, 116.5498°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 19:58:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
538h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.95
Predicted M2.95 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 3.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b0673a58de30482115ae1706510a65d82ee3bef81a80e59f11490f1fa298f488
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-38.48--116.55-20260520T1958
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.