Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
12.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2336°N, 119.1394°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 03:54:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
450h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8b8334fad4678321f4dcf14081cac6cac4c0ded099036835f826dc31ddd41753
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-39.23--119.14-20260517T0354
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.