Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
14.2 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.2 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3545°N, 122.8445°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 09:20:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
575h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
83.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.85
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2e59a0584118a08a264048db073f52ab666e1bf6566e121819b6e4d7cf16b3a7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-39.35--122.84-20260522T0920
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.