Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
31.0 miles East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
31.0 miles East of Austin
39.3633°N, 116.5167°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 20:31:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
418h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
102.6 km
2.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.63
Predicted M2.83 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
20.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4df349af32a0c79e5745ba7d95fa233a202a91296e0066f863233409a7fff7ab
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_024314_pred-39.36--116.52-20260515T2031
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 09:43:17 PST
Source Batch
20260428_024314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:55.192703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.