Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
47.9 miles West of Lompoc
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
47.9 miles West of Lompoc
34.4257°N, 121.2585°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 19:17:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2312h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
133.0 km
33.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.22
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M2.5
- 1.22 over limit
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 4.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b49de0f9373212c4cc4e662d90903c3e21367f4ea7b59ba50c9ae4117fc0e043
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_032536_pred-34.43--121.26-20260802T1917
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 10:25:40 PST
Source Batch
20260428_032536_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:56.702658+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.