Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
33.5 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.5 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3843°N, 124.4863°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 09:30:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2279h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
21.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.31
Predicted M4.61 vs actual M2.3
- 1.31 over limit
Depth Error
29.2 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 20.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0ddaf146116bcf3c4cb9862692cbe82c2d4b3294cd206559a6ceefc223381a11
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_032536_pred-40.38--124.49-20260801T0930
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 10:25:40 PST
Source Batch
20260428_032536_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:56.702658+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.