Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.5 miles North of El Centro
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles North of El Centro
32.8864°N, 115.5622°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 03:39:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
134h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.49 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
23.1 km
Pred. 9.2 km vs actual 13.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7cfe0affcf28de32765c08a46bea563328cba35f9f923b4b763c8796d88624b7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-32.89--115.56-20260504T0339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.