Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
5.6 miles South-East of Pinyon Pines
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-East of Pinyon Pines
33.5402°N, 116.4205°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 17:33:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
147h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M2.44 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
34.8 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 27.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2b209360190b8b7d856040e7ea516b25ff448b88be48e4dbf73e55c65b604436
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-33.54--116.42-20260504T1733
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.