Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
31.1 miles South-East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
31.1 miles South-East of Austin
39.2679°N, 116.5678°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 19:07:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
218.2 km
118.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.37 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc5acf3ac90abeb482ea69849928d4497f9c8717d1807acca18830b039fea9c3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-39.27--116.57-20260429T1907
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.