Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
10.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.5 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2670°N, 119.1398°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 20:37:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
102h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.39 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3937d41412029549d4c98be086d3587f8749de79eebe3157c030488ff04940bd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-39.27--119.14-20260502T2037
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.