Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
8.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3048°N, 119.1219°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 11:31:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
141h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.4 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 9.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a8d5942ea34d9a9c858c36e544a36a1f9ec5af2d447189034e8ffd743d0863dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-39.30--119.12-20260504T1131
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.