Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
8.9 miles North-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.9 miles North-East of Silver Springs
39.4996°N, 119.1287°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 08:21:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
42h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.50
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 8.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b4c5b35e7ac0dd1028a1dcc28494a6d86ba27ef6dccbe953dc569767678e5ca8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-39.50--119.13-20260430T0821
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.