Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
12.4 miles South of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles South of Eureka
40.6241°N, 124.1328°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 13:55:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.07 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
34.8 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 27.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4a1687940dd479a8867441bb6e3e75fea2e3f3df8eac0c910073fe3b7c7533dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-40.62--124.13-20260428T1355
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.