Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
34.1 miles North of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
34.1 miles North of Gerlach
41.1246°N, 119.1457°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 19:58:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
101.8 km
1.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.05 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
4.0 km
Pred. 3.3 km vs actual 0.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a96c76dd5d2cf8af3b64587621c270717a64b6dcb3389d209612d8e50da5fab2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_063842_pred-41.12--119.15-20260429T1958
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 13:38:45 PST
Source Batch
20260428_063842_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:57.767515+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.