Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
26.6 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.6 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3384°N, 115.2870°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 04:05:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
442h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.1 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c9c05c3573162901b2e8d5f0da80b923a893765271840583e85cb99c0e4b93b9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_101620_pred-32.34--115.29-20260517T0405
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 17:16:23 PST
Source Batch
20260428_101620_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:59.151216+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.