Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.7 miles South-West of Idyllwild
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles South-West of Idyllwild
33.6858°N, 116.8355°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 11:15:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1049h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
49.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
42.6 h
6.6 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.42 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
65a37786d0782228ba43e8fe46b286f8d3a5df1da31e7712a65c0776bd97d227
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_101620_pred-33.69--116.84-20260611T1115
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 17:16:23 PST
Source Batch
20260428_101620_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:59.151216+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.