Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
2.2 miles North-West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles North-West of Dublin
37.7232°N, 121.9666°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 00:50:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
463h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 5.5 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0c93957d6c1d4e4ac59f247549d6b3cae67df3519ef44b615db17fbfcb6e438c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_101620_pred-37.72--121.97-20260518T0050
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 17:16:23 PST
Source Batch
20260428_101620_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:59.151216+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.