Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
1.2 miles West of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.2 miles West of Silver Springs
39.4003°N, 119.2555°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 20:31:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
411h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
14.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.83 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a3718e7c71d9b9d0fe3f3ab27d4c4f6a6ac8307aad2e75bf66d3f63cfd747a93
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_101620_pred-39.40--119.26-20260515T2031
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 17:16:23 PST
Source Batch
20260428_101620_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:59.151216+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.