Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
2.4 miles West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.4 miles West of Ojai
34.4484°N, 119.2847°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 19:17:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2304h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
53.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.32
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M2.4
- 1.32 over limit
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 11.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d44650abb6b60841660923524605b03aa5b102026a899448e8156cb9920a5eda
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_113531_pred-34.45--119.28-20260802T1917
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 18:35:34 PST
Source Batch
20260428_113531_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:00.601485+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.