Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
5.3 miles South-West of Little Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles South-West of Little Lake
35.8723°N, 117.9595°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 09:02:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2462h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
23.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
3.18
Predicted M5.28 vs actual M2.1
- 2.18 over limit
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 4.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3b62c8f0771d20c62ad3822ef9eaab359a04575495d7d232facb441b03975876
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_113531_pred-35.87--117.96-20260809T0902
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 18:35:34 PST
Source Batch
20260428_113531_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:00.601485+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.