Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
31.2 miles South of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
31.2 miles South of Eureka
40.3843°N, 124.3892°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 09:30:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2270h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
29.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.31
Predicted M4.61 vs actual M2.3
- 1.31 over limit
Depth Error
29.2 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 20.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
900d6cfec3a7ce9cef66a7927ccf5baf1ee889dd06f4ab31ec1b183a7f6d5bac
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_113531_pred-40.38--124.39-20260801T0930
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 18:35:34 PST
Source Batch
20260428_113531_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:00.601485+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.