Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.1 miles North-East of Milpitas
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles North-East of Milpitas
37.4832°N, 121.8623°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 12:05:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
133h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
5.3 km
Pred. 2.8 km vs actual 2.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fa5bd2cb65e9abcb16c925bf852ad8eaeb4b510f65f0f527a785b31a3ccee2e2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_152924_pred-37.48--121.86-20260504T1205
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 22:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260428_152924_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:01.709044+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.