Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.5 miles South-West of Cloverdale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-West of Cloverdale
38.7133°N, 123.0904°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 06:26:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
3.6 km
Pred. 3.8 km vs actual 0.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
665b117dad33becc91249d6f7b05a5eb001168b2ba391918ed9889ada648ede5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_152924_pred-38.71--123.09-20260430T0626
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 22:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260428_152924_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:01.709044+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.