Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
20.9 miles North-East of Fernley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.9 miles North-East of Fernley
39.8868°N, 119.1001°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 11:57:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
15.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
79a793701552f658e9e9536513d574b82bd3f93f72cb015822c6f625d12feae9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_152924_pred-39.89--119.10-20260429T1157
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 22:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260428_152924_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:01.709044+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.