Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
4.2 miles South-East of Ravendale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles South-East of Ravendale
40.7672°N, 120.3367°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 08:15:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
153h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
195.9 km
95.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
19.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M3.42 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4dd04c70d169494d15cab78b6ddfc218efaea14a9baa9953bd12b24d5c7176de
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_152924_pred-40.77--120.34-20260505T0815
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 22:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260428_152924_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:01.709044+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.