Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
4.9 miles North-West of Trinidad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles North-West of Trinidad
41.1091°N, 124.2101°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 04:53:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.05 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 3.8 km vs actual 8.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
075916b9e644fe6b40cea45da830ce19f3fbeff2b8289619426f2a212c609c04
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_152924_pred-41.11--124.21-20260430T0453
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 28, 2026 22:29:28 PST
Source Batch
20260428_152924_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:01.709044+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.