Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
148.5 miles South of Gaviota
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
148.5 miles South of Gaviota
32.3929°N, 120.8823°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of June 2026
Jun 09, 2026 05:12:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
988h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
386.4 km
286.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
11.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
315f87723bcacbacf53f2a7f59fd66c802b34232cae6d997810a6c699e6d82af
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260428_171727_pred-32.39--120.88-20260609T0512
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 00:17:30 PST
Source Batch
20260428_171727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:03.176299+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.